Geopolitical Risk: H1 2023 Macro Outlook

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February 09, 2023 at 5:00 am UTC

This memo previews the Macro Outlook section of Morning Consult’s H1 2023 Global Geopolitical Risk Outlook Report.Access the full reporthere,以及智慧h country, issue and topical forecasts.

Macro Outlook

  • Public views on key geopolitical issues — including political institutions and economic stability, the business climate, economic openness, and climate change — yield a mixed global outlook for H1 2023.
  • Bucking historical trends, risks are more acute in developed markets relative to emerging ones.
  • Risks arising from economically motivated political unrest will persist into H2.

Present conditions

Heading into 2023, majorities across most of the G-20 support democracy, but the shares who trust their central government are almost always lower. Accordingly, we view the latter as a more likely immediate source of political instability. In parallel, economic conditions remain a key source of risk due to persistent public concerns about market stability, labor protections and job security (more so than income inequality). On average, concerns are more pronounced in developed markets relative to emerging ones (see slides 13-16 of report).

Globally, public attitudes are broadly protectionist and conducive to ongoing government efforts to raise tariffs, incentivize local manufacturing and reshore critical supply chains. ESG, by contrast, is a bright spot owing to consistently strong public support for corporate environmental stewardship and government efforts to reduce emissions.

Global Public Sentiment on Key Political, Economic, Commercial and Environmental Issues

Share of adults in each country who said they …
Global Public Sentiment on Key Political, Economic, Commercial and Environmental Issues
Surveys conducted in December 2022 among representative samples of roughly 1,000 adults per country, with unweighted margins of error of +/-3 percentage points. Survey question on environmental stewardship pertains to corporate responsibility; survey question on emissions pertains to government targets; and survey question on local manufacturing pertains to government action to ensure domestic production.

Six-month trajectory

Although trust is trending positively in most countries, we expect a slow rebound and more persistent risk in industrialized markets (see slide 17 of report), hence our mixed overall outlook through H1. Declining support for democracy in some markets — notably Mexico and South Africa — makes backsliding a tail risk worth watching. Our outlook on economically motivated political unrest is also mixed. In most places, public views of market stability are trending positively, but at an insufficient pace to drive average sentiment into net favorable territory until at least H2 2023 (see slide 13).

In tandem, we forecast ongoing risks to global supply chains due to relatively muted six-month swings in either direction around a staunchly protectionist baseline and a sharp uptick in pro-tariff sentiment in China. As a silver lining, we expect green enthusiasm to persist over H1. Downtrends in some markets will be insufficient to drive shares below the majority mark, assuming they continue at the same pace.

Six-Month Trajectory of Global Public Sentiment on Key Political, Economic, Commercial and Environmental Issues

Percentage point change in the shares of adults in each country who said they …
Six-Month Trajectory of Global Public Sentiment on Key Political, Economic, Commercial and Environmental Issues
Reported values derive from surveys conducted in June 2022 and December 2022 among representative samples of roughly 1,000 adults per country, with unweighted margins of error of +/-3 percentage points. Survey question on environmental stewardship pertains to corporate responsibility; survey question on emissions pertains to government targets; and survey question on local manufacturing pertains to government action to ensure domestic production.

About this report

Morning Consult’s biannual Global Geopolitical Risk Outlook Report provides a comprehensive, data-driven assessment of public attitudes toward key issues at the intersection of politics and economics across 17 of the world’s largest markets. Each report includes an Executive Dashboard to guide decision-makers through issue- and country-specific risks and opportunities, along with topical outlooks that facilitate more targeted assessments.

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Jason McMann
政治分析主管

Jason I. McMann leads geopolitical risk analysis at Morning Consult. He leverages the company’s high-frequency survey data to advise clients on how to integrate geopolitical risk into their decision-making. Jason previously served as head of analytics at GeoQuant (now part of Fitch Solutions). He holds a Ph.D. from Princeton University’s Politics Department. Follow him on Twitter@jimcmann. Interested in connecting with Jason to discuss his analysis or for a media engagement or speaking opportunity? Email[email protected].

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