Tracking Sentiment in Russia After Wagner Group’s March on Moscow

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This past weekend’s events in Russia have been described alternately as a coup attempt, a military revolt, or the beginning of a civil war. But the overwhelming majority of Russians continue to say their country is headed in the right direction despite Wagner paramilitary group leader Yevgeny Prigozhin’s march on Moscow. Sentiment has held steady since the onset of the war in Ukraine in late February 2022, which drove a marked uptick in public optimism surrounding Russia’s trajectory.

There are several explanations for the trend’s relative stability. Given the recency of developments, sentiment may simply be trending sideways as the public assesses the situation and more information becomes available. Reported barriers tointernational media accesswill also likely extend the timeframe over which shifts in Russian sentiment manifest in our data, barring furtherpublic statementsby President Vladimir Putin surrounding recent developments and the solidification of official state narratives. Longer-term political dynamics that predate the current crisis — specifically unified domestic media support for the war, opposition flight from Russia since February 2022 and elevated risk of preference falsification among those who remain (due to fear of political persecution and laws prohibiting criticism of the armed forces and its actions abroad) — are also potential contributing factors.

Ourprevious assessmentof this trend — in February 2023 — was that it reflects a durable rally around the flag effect, interrupted slightly by partial mobilization in fall 2022. Our assessment also predicted that additional military failures, especially those resulting in further troop mobilization, were the biggest risk to Russian pro-war solidarity, especially if coupled with biting sanctions. Recent events reinforce that battlefield losses are a source of potential political instability. But thus far, the effect appears to be more visible through elite power jockeying than through shifts in public opinion. Given ongoing uncertainties, we advise caution when parsing trends in Russian data as events unfold, but nevertheless view volatility in this data series as a bellwether of shifting public views and rising uncertainty.