Majority of Voters Support Trump’s 2020-Related Indictment

Sign upto get the latest data and analysis on how business, politics and economics intersect around the world.

How voters view the latest Trump indictment

A slim 52% majority of U.S. voters approve of a federal grand jury’s decision to charge former President Donald Trump for his role in attempting to overturn the 2020 election results, while 40% disapprove, according to a survey conducted the day after special counsel Jack Smith filed the Aug. 1 indictment in federal court. This is similar to the shares of voters who approved and disapproved ofTrump’s separate indictmentin June over his handling of classified documents after leaving the White House.

While Republicans are more opposed to the 2020 election-related charges than the documents-related indictment (76% to 69%), the opposite is true among independent voters, suggesting a major electoral weakness for the Republican Party’s presidential front-runner. Our latest survey found that 59% of independent voters support the latest indictment, compared with 49% who supported the charges filed in June.

And despite Trump’s attacks on the special counsel’s probe — which his campaign called a “pathetic attempt” to interfere with the 2024 presidential election — voters are slightly less likely to ascribe a partisan motivation to the latest indictment compared with the June charges.

Our latest survey found that 39% of voters believe Trump’s 2020 election-related indictment was primarily out of motivation to damage his political career, compared with 43% who said the same regarding the documents matter. Along with independents, this difference is driven by Republican voters, who are 10 percentage points less likely to label the election-related charges as politically motivated compared with the documents-related indictment.

This could be due to the fact that the bulk of the electorate (57%) sees Trump as “very” or “somewhat” responsible for the events that led to the Jan. 6 Capitol riots,a similar figure to previous surveys.

With the legal process in the 2020 election case just beginning, voters — led by Democrats and independents — more likely than not expect Trump to face a fair trial (49% to 38%), though the whole ordeal has prompted concerns of domestic unrest and instability among many Americans.

At 39%, voters are most likely to say they are “very concerned” about violent political protests if Trump is found guilty, suggesting fears of another Jan. 6-style event.

If Trumpisn’tfound guilty, 38% of Americans fear for the integrity of the justice system — roughly matching the share who said the same if heisfound guilty. And regardless of how the case goes, more than a third of Americans are concerned about domestic political stability.

The initial political implications

In terms of Trump’s standing with the Republican Party’s potential 2024 primary electorate, we’re going to let the dust settle until early next week when we updateour 2024 GOP primary tracker. But Trump’s first two indictments, including his state charges in New York, yielded somewhat stronger support for him — a brief sugar high in his standing with the GOP’s expected electorate — and this week’s survey shows enormous strength for the party’s 2024 front-runner.

Roughly 3 in 5 Republican voters (58%) said Trump should definitely run for the party’s 2024 presidential nomination, marking his highest level of support (as indicated by this particular metric) in surveys conducted since 2021. Meanwhile, almost 7 in 10 GOP voters (68%) said Trump should play a “major role” in the Republican Party, up from 60% in an April survey.

The bottom line: If the past is precedent, the latest indictment is unlikely to shift the trajectory of the race for the GOP’s 2024 presidential nomination given Trump’s enormous strength among the party’s electorate. But Trump’s continued presence on the political stage may hurt the GOP’s standing with independent voters they will likely need to win next year, given that over half of them (52%) don’t want him to play a role in the GOP and 64% don’t want him to run again. This may be especially true if voters’ worst fears about political instability come true after Trump’s expected trial.