Global Politics
The State of Trans-Atlantic Relations: H2 2022 Report
Report Summary
跨大西洋经济关系是我们rld’s largest in dollar terms, and arguably the deepest and most complex when it comes to the range of issues involved.
This report leverages Morning Consult’s public opinion data on trans-Atlantic relations among adults in the European Union, the United States and the United Kingdom to better understand the drivers of trans-Atlantic trade flows, regulatory policymaking, cooperation on salient technology issues and economic statecraft.
Key Takeaways
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Shared values remain the basis of the trans-Atlantic relationship, with bilateral favorability rising and falling in response to major political developments. The most important influence on trans-Atlantic favorability in 2022 was Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
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U.S. and European priorities overlap, with some notable differences. U.S. and European adults jointly prioritize cooperating on energy, the environment, consumer safety and humanitarian action. The former more highly prioritize expanding U.S.-E.U. trade and cooperating on export controls and China policy, while Europeans place greater weight on scientific cooperation and promoting labor rights.
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Public support for sanctions against Russia is robust, but hinges on inflation. In the United States, support for energy sanctions has steadily slipped since Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022, with Republicans consistently trailing independents and Democrats. Pluralities of Europeans only support sanctions if they don’t cause prices to rise, and even the most hawkish European countries only support them unconditionally at the same rate as U.S. Republicans.
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The public supports using economic statecraft to enhance national security. Industrial policy has been at the forefront of both global and trans-Atlantic relations in 2022, vis-à-vis Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and as part of the United States’ growing efforts to manage China’s rise.
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Trans-Atlantic coordination on two key geopolitical developments — the war in Ukraine and China’s growing assertiveness — will be fraught. More U.S. adults say they are “very concerned” about China compared with Russia, while the opposite is the case in Europe. This misalignment will lead to difficult discussions in the coming months as U.S. officials seek to gain European buy-in for shared policies to constrain China, like broad, tech-oriented export controls.
Methodology
This report relies on data collected through Morning Consult’s proprietary survey research capabilities. Interviews are conducted online. All U.S. data aside from the country favorability series derives from recurring monthly surveys conducted among representative samples of roughly 2,200 U.S. adults or 2,000 registered voters each, with unweighted margins of error of +/-2 percentage points. Data are weighted to approximate representative samples of U.S. voters or adults.
U.S. country favorability data comes from Morning Consult Political Intelligence. Country favorability data is based on pooled seven-day moving averages of U.S. adults and has an unweighted margin of error of +/-2 percentage points. Morning Consult last updated its weights for U.S. adults on April1, 2022. All European data aside from the country favorability series derives from surveys conducted among representative samples of 1,000 adults per country, with unweighted margins of error of +/-3 percentage points each. Data are weighted to approximate representative samples of adults in each country.
European country favorability data comes from Morning Consult Political Intelligence. Daily reports are based on pooled seven-day moving averages of adults in France, Germany, Italy, Spain and the United Kingdom, each with an unweighted margin of error of less than +/-1 percentage point. The favorability map for Europe (seeSlide 11) reports eight-month aggregates with sample sizes ranging from roughly 8,700 to 96,000 adults per country, with unweighted margins of error of +/-1percentage point each. Dates indicated in all line charts correspond to the last day of survey fielding for each wave.
Weighting and Representativeness
数据是近似repr加权entative samples of adults in each country surveyed. Weighting parameters vary by country. The target population for all countries is the adult (18+) internet-using population.
About the Author
Sonnet Frisbie leads Morning Consult’s geopolitical risk offering for Europe, the Middle East and Africa. Prior to joining Morning Consult, Sonnet spent over a decade at the U.S. State Department specializing in issues at the intersection of economics, commerce and political risk in Iraq, Central Europe and sub-Saharan Africa. She holds an MPP from the University of Chicago.
Follow her on Twitter@sonnetfrisbie. Interested in connecting with Sonnet to discuss her analysis or for a media engagement or speaking opportunity? Email[email protected].
