2020年美国大选追踪
For this tracker, Morning Consult conducted over 4,000 daily surveys with likely voters on the presidential election, congressional elections, candidate favorability, and more. The most recent national data is based on surveys conducted Oct. 29-31, 2020 among 14,663 likely voters, and the latest state-level data is based on surveys conducted Oct. 22-31, 2020, with between 727-4,451 likely voters per state.
This tracker is no longer updating. For more recent intel, explore our coverage of the2024 electionsorsign up for the latest news and analysis in U.S. politics.
Key Takeaways
-
2020 looks very different from 2016, final pre-election poll shows: Four years after Democrats found themselves locked out of Washington’s levers of government, a comparison of 2016 exit data and the latest polling shows their improved fortunes are largely down to Biden’s appeal among older and white voters, many of whom were repelled by Clinton.Read the story.
-
Trump and Biden look set to split the few remaining undecided voters of 2020: Only 3 percent of likely voters say they don’t know who they’re backing in the presidential contest. When asked which way they were leaning, 30 percent said Biden and 28 percent said Trump, but the lion’s share (43 percent) of undecideds said they were more likely to vote for someone else altogether.Read the story.
-
Most voters who went third party in 2016 are backing Biden over Trump this year:10月16 -每日进行跟踪可能投票的选民18 found 53 percent of likely voters who opted for someone other than a major-party nominee in 2016 said they’re backing Biden in this year’s election, while 21 percent said they’re supporting Trump. Another 14 percent said they would vote for a third-party candidate again, while 12 percent are still undecided.Read the story.
Top-Line Figures
National presidential head to head:Biden 51.9%, Trump 43.9% (Biden +8)
State-level presidential head to head:
- Biden leads: CO, FL, MI, MN, PA, WI
- Trump leads: IN, MO, SC
- Within the margin of error: AZ, GA, NC, OH, TX
National presidential favorability (net):Biden +6, Trump -11
Generic congressional ballot:Democrats 50.0%, Republicans 42.7% (Dems +7)
Senate elections:
- Democrat leads: CO, MI, NC
- Republican leads: AL, KY, TX
- Within the margin of error: AZ, GA, SC
National Presidential Head-to-Head Tracking
Based on surveys conducted Oct. 29-31, 2020. Sample sizes vary, with the margin of error ranging between 1 to 3% per demographic.
State-Level Presidential Head-to-Head Tracking
Presidential Candidate Favorability Tracking
Generic Congressional Ballot Tracking
Senate Battleground State Tracking
Source of This Data
Methodology
The latest national results reflect surveys conducted Oct. 29-31, 2020 among 14,663 likely voters. Morning Consult’s reported results reflect data among likely voters based on a 3-day moving average with a margin of error of +/- 1%. Morning Consult conducts daily interviews with a representative sample of around 4,000 likely voters in the United States via stratified sampling based on age, gender, and language (English/Spanish). This daily sample is weighted based on age, education, ethnicity, gender, geographic region, home ownership, marital status and 2016 presidential vote history.
The latest state-level results reflect surveys conducted with between 727-4,451 likely voters per state from Oct. 22-31, 2020. For our state-level polling, weights are applied to each state separately based on age, gender, education, race, home ownership, marital status, population density, presidential vote history and — for a subset of states — race by education as well as an age-by-gender interaction.
Download the full dataset for the latest state-level release, and learn more aboutPolitical Intelligencehere.
About Morning Consult
Morning Consult is a global decision intelligence company changing how modern leaders make smarter, faster, better decisions. The company pairs its proprietary high-frequency data with applied artificial intelligence to better inform decisions on what people think and how they will act. Learn more atwww.wikihoaleaks.com.
Nick Laughlin is the Head of Content & Audience Development at Morning Consult.@nick_d_laughlin
