Tracking the 2024 Republican Primary
Survey conducted Oct. 27-29, 2023, among 3,912 potential Republican primary voters, with an unweighted margin of error of +/-2 percentage points.
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Key Takeaways
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Trump maintains a massive primary lead: Trump leads DeSantis by 48 percentage points among potential Republican primary voters (61% to 13%). Former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley and entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy are tied in third place with 7% backing each. Former Vice President Mike Pence ended his campaign on Saturday, leaving his 5% support up for grabs.
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DeSantis, Haley are splitting second-choice support: Among the roughly 2 in 5 potential GOP primary voters who do not support Trump, there is not much consensus on who they would back if their preferred candidate wasn’t in the race. Roughly 3 in 10 (29%) said their second choice would be Trump, followed by 16% who said DeSantis and 15% who said Haley.
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Biden and Trump are tied among the overall electorate: Trump and Biden garner the same level of support (43%) among the overall electorate following a week that featured news coverage of the former president’s legal troubles and of the current president’s handling of the latest Israel-Hamas war. Our latest surveys show 42% of voters approve and 43% disapprove of Biden’s handling of the broader Israeli-Palestinian conflict, unchanged fromour survey released last week.
About Morning Consult's Capabilities
Where does this data come from?We survey thousands of U.S. voters every day, enabling daily tracking of nearly 1,200 Republican primary voters ahead of Election Day.
Why survey daily?High-frequency survey research allows us to generate larger sample sizes and shed light on key demographic groups, with more consistency and stability.Scroll below for more on our methodology.
Tracking Republicans’ 2024 Primary Support Over Time
Data points reflect three-day moving averages of at least 2,476 potential Republican primary voters, with unweighted margins of error of +/-1 to 2 percentage points.
- The bulk of the GOP’s electorate (61%) would back Trump if the primary or caucus were held in their state today, while 13% would support DeSantis.
- Haley and Ramaswamy are each supported by 7% of the party’s potential voters, followed by former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie at 3% and South Carolina Sen. Tim Scott at 2%.
- North Dakota Gov. Doug Burgum has 1% support, while 0% of the GOP’s electorate backs former Arkansas Gov. Asa Hutchinson.
Second Choices: Where GOP Primary Voters Could Migrate
Survey conducted Oct. 27-29, 2023, among 3,912 potential Republican primary voters, with an unweighted margin of error of +/-2 to 3 percentage points for responses shown.
- DeSantis is the second choice of 33% of potential GOP primary voters who are supporting Trump, followed by 21% who would back Ramaswamy and 8% who would back Haley.
- Roughly 3 in 10 potential Republican primary voters (29%) who do not support Trump said he is their second choice, followed by 16% who said DeSantis, 15% who said Haley and 9% who said Ramaswamy.
- 17% of Trump’s supporters said they do not know where their loyalties would fall if Trump weren’t in the race, compared with 7% of those backing someone other than him
How Trump and DeSantis Perform Against Biden in Hypothetical Matchup
Latest surveys conducted Oct. 27-29, 2023 among representative samples of roughly 6,000 registered voters, with an unweighted margin of error of +/-1 percentage point.
- 在假想的大选中对位,拜登nd Trump are tied at 43%, while DeSantis trails the incumbent by 4 points. Voters are slightly more uncertain about who they would support or said they would opt for “someone else” when Biden is matched up against DeSantis.
- These numbers may be best considered as a test of electability — a key issue in party primaries that carries all the more significance this time around given concerns about Trump’s baggage and whether the GOP should work to maintain Trump’s coalition or to try to expand its base.
Tracking the Popularity of Potential 2024 Primary Candidates
Latest survey conducted Oct. 27-29, 2023, among 823 potential Republican primary voters, with an unweighted margin of error of +/-4 percentage points. Net favorability is the share of potential Republican primary voters with favorable views of a candidate minus the share with unfavorable views.
- Trump is popular with 76% of the party’s potential electorate, while 22% view him unfavorably.
- Christie’s popularity has increased a bit in recent weeks, though it is still well underwater as he continues criticizing Trump. In our latest surveys, potential GOP primary voters were 17 points more likely to hold unfavorable views than favorable views about the former governor, down from 29 points in early October.
The Buzz About the 2024 Republican Presidential Primary
Latest survey conducted Oct. 27-29, 2023, among 823 potential Republican primary voters, with an unweighted margin of error of +/-4 percentage points. Net buzz is the share of potential Republican primary voters who heard something positive over the previous week about a candidate minus the share who heard something negative.
- Potential GOP voters are 10 points more likely to report having recently heard something negative than positive about Trump as news coverage focuses on his mounting legal troubles.
- Trump’s challengers for the GOP’s 2024 nomination are continuing to struggle for much attention. Just under half of potential Republican primary voters (47%) said they haven’t heard something recently about DeSantis, while 59% said the same of Ramaswamy and 60% said the same of Haley.
Source of This Data
Methodology
最新的全国pertainin结果问题g to 2024 Republican presidential primary first choice, second choice and hypothetical general-election matchups reflect surveys conducted Oct. 27-29, 2023. The first- and second-choice results reflect responses among 3,912 potential Republican primary voters. Our sample of potential Republican primary voters includes any registered voter who said they plan to vote in the Republican presidential primary or caucus in their state in 2024.
Potential Republican primary voters who initially said they did not know or had no opinion about which candidate they plan to vote for were asked to pick a candidate they are leaning toward. The results reflecting each candidate’s 2024 Republican primary support include the responses from these “leaners.”
The hypothetical general election results against President Joe Biden reflect responses among a nationally representative sample of more than 5,000 registered voters.
Morning Consult’s reported results on questions pertaining to candidate favorability and buzz reflect data gathered on a weekly basis among roughly 800 potential Republican primary voters. For more information on our 2024 methodology, seehere.
About Morning Consult
Morning Consult is a global decision intelligence company changing how modern leaders make smarter, faster, better decisions. The company pairs its proprietary high-frequency data with applied artificial intelligence to better inform decisions on what people think and how they will act. Learn more atwww.wikihoaleaks.com.
Eli Yokley is Morning Consult’s U.S. politics analyst. Eli joined Morning Consult in 2016 from Roll Call, where he reported on House and Senate campaigns after five years of covering state-level politics in the Show Me State while studying at the University of Missouri in Columbia, including contributions to The New York Times, Politico and The Daily Beast. Follow him on Twitter @eyokley. Interested in connecting with Eli to discuss his analysis or for a media engagement or speaking opportunity? Email[email protected].
