U.S. Foreign Policy Tracker
世界杯足球比赛上午咨询的美国Foreign Policy Tracker follows Americans’ views of U.S. foreign policy, including which issues they find most important, whether public opinion skews toward isolationism or engagement, and whether voters favor multilateral solutions to global economic and military challenges or prefer to go it alone. The tracker pairs Morning Consult’s crosscutting U.S. Foreign Policy Sentiment Indexes — which measure voters’ attitudes toward isolationism and multilateralism — with topical data on Democrats’ and Republicans’ evolving views on U.S.-China and U.S.-E.U. relations, foreign trade and investment, and more to provide holistic, high-frequency insights into Americans’ foreign policy preferences. A methodological companion memo can be foundhere.
Key Takeaways
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Republican voters’ concerns about immigration dip.The share of GOP voters who rank immigration as a top five foreign policy priority for the United States has declined 9 percentage points since April (from 67% to 58%), though it remains the top priority (along with terrorism). Conversely, the share among Democrats is up 4 points during that period (19% to 23%).
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As America bakes, Democrats and Republicans hold starkly different views on climate change.Democrats rank it as their most pressing foreign policy concern. For Republicans, it ranks near the bottom.
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Republican voters’ antipathy to overseas military deployments rises.The share who think the United States should decrease the deployment of troops overseas has risen 9 points since May (from 38% to 47%). Dimming views of overseas deployments tracks more broadly with rising isolationist sentiment among the GOP electorate. During that same period, the share of Republican voters who favor greater isolationism increased 4 points (from 45% to 49%).
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Democratic voters’ support for tariffs nears an all-time high.The share who think the United States should impose more tariffs on foreign-made goods has risen 6 points since March (from 35% to 41%), just below a tracking high of 42% set in June. That’s a 12-point increase from a tracking low of 29% in December 2022.
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Voters’ concerns about pandemics fade.Three and a half years after the start of the COVID-19 pandemic, just 27% of voters rank the prevention of another global health crisis among America’s top five most pressing foreign policy priorities — a 3-point decline since April. Concern has declined 6 points among Democrats and 3 points among Republicans during that period.
Top Issues
Americans’ Top Foreign Policy Issues
“Immigration” and “drug trafficking” items refer to flows into the United States. “Disinformation” refers specifically to efforts by foreign governments to influence U.S. politics. “Terrorism” and “cyberattacks” refer specifically to actions targeting the United States.
Americans’ Top Foreign Policy Issues: Side-by-Side Comparisons
“Immigration” and “drug trafficking” items refer to flows into the United States. “Disinformation” refers specifically to efforts by foreign governments to influence U.S. politics. “Terrorism” and “cyberattacks” refer specifically to actions targeting the United States.
Isolationism and Engagement
Indexes of U.S. Isolationism and Engagement
The thematic issue areas, each composed of two data series, include (1) soft power and foreign aid, covering attitudes toward involvement in other countries’ affairs and foreign aid provision; (2) overseas military engagement, covering support for U.S. troop deployments and involvement in military conflicts; and (3) trade and investment policies, covering preferences toward tariffs on foreign goods and barriers to inward foreign investment. Each index is computed as a simple average of shares corresponding to response levels (isolationism, stability and engagement) across all six component data series. “Don’t know/No opinion” responses do not factor into the index calculations and are not shown here.
Isolationism and Engagement: Thematic Issue Areas
The thematic issue areas that comprise the Indexes of U.S. Isolationism and Engagement are Involvement in Other Countries' Affairs, Overseas Troop Deployments and Trade and Tariffs.
Involvement in Other Countries’ Affairs
Response categories — increase, neither increase nor decrease, and decrease — respectively connote engagement, stability and isolationism in the corresponding Morning Consult indexes. “Don’t know/No opinion” responses do not factor into the index calculations and are not shown here.
Overseas Troop Deployments
Response categories — increase, neither increase nor decrease, and decrease — respectively correspond to engagement, stability and isolationism in the corresponding Morning Consult indexes. “Don’t know/No opinion” responses do not factor into the index calculations and are not shown here.
Trade and Tariffs
Response categories — increase, neither increase nor decrease, and decrease — respectively correspond to isolationism, stability and engagement in the corresponding Morning Consult indexes. “Don’t know/No opinion” responses do not factor into the index calculations and are not shown here.
Indexes of U.S. Multilateralism and Unilateralism
The thematic issue areas, each composed of a single data series, address three distinct aspects of U.S. foreign policy, including (1) policy coordination via diplomatic forums, covering attitudes toward U.S. involvement in international organizations; (2) military policy coordination, covering attitudes toward addressing global military disputes in coordination with U.S. partners and allies as opposed to going it alone; and (3) economic policy coordination, covering the same attitudes in the context of global economic disputes. Each index is computed as a simple average of shares corresponding to response levels (multilateralism, stability and unilateralism) across all three component data series. “Don’t know/No opinion” responses do not factor into the index calculations and are not shown here.
Multilateralism and Unilateralism: Thematic Issue Areas
The thematic issue areas that comprise the Indexes of U.S. Multilateralism and Unilateralism are Involvement in International Organizations, Resolution of Military Disputes and Resolution of Economic Disputes.
Involvement in International Organizations
Response categories — increase, neither increase nor decrease, and decrease — respectively connote multilateralism, stability and unilateralism in the corresponding Morning Consult indexes. “Don’t know/No opinion” responses do not factor into the index calculations and are not shown here.
Resolution of Military Disputes
Response categories — increase, neither increase nor decrease, and decrease — respectively correspond to multilateralism, stability, and unilateralism in the corresponding Morning Consult indices. Don’t know/No opinion” responses do not factor into the index calculations and are not shown here.
Resolution of Economic Disputes
Response categories — increase, neither increase nor decrease, and decrease — respectively connote multilateralism, stability and unilateralism in the corresponding Morning Consult indexes. “Don’t know/No opinion” responses do not factor into the index calculations and are not shown here.
Source of This Data
Methodology
The U.S. Foreign Policy Tracker relies on data collected through Morning Consult’s proprietary survey research capabilities. Interviews are conducted online.
All data featured in the tracker derives from surveys conducted among representative samples of roughly 2,000 registered voters each, with unweighted margins of error of +/-2 percentage points. Data are weighted to approximate representative samples of U.S. voters. Morning Consult updated its weights for U.S. adults on Jan. 1, 2023.
Dates indicated in all charts correspond to the last day of survey fielding for each wave. Surveys were conducted weekly through Nov. 6, 2022, and monthly thereafter.
About Morning Consult
Morning Consult is a global decision intelligence company changing how modern leaders make smarter, faster, better decisions. The company pairs its proprietary high-frequency data with applied artificial intelligence to better inform decisions on what people think and how they will act. Learn more atwww.wikihoaleaks.com.
Email[email protected]to speak with a member of the Morning Consult team.
Jason I. McMann leads geopolitical risk analysis at Morning Consult. He leverages the company’s high-frequency survey data to advise clients on how to integrate geopolitical risk into their decision-making. Jason previously served as head of analytics at GeoQuant (now part of Fitch Solutions). He holds a Ph.D. from Princeton University’s Politics Department. Follow him on Twitter@jimcmann. Interested in connecting with Jason to discuss his analysis or for a media engagement or speaking opportunity? Email[email protected].
Jon Reid is a research editor for domestic and world politics at Morning Consult. Prior to his current role, he was a politics editor with Morning Consult’s editorial division. Jon joined Morning Consult from Bloomberg Industry Group, where he reported on telecommunications policy and edited newsletters. He graduated from Arizona State University. Follow him on Twitter at @JonTReid.
