U.S.-China Relations Barometer
Against the backdrop of a multiyear trade war, heightened screening of cross-border investments, and persistent tensions over the South China Sea and Taiwan, Morning Consult’s U.S.-China Relations Barometer provides data-driven insights into public perceptions of bilateral relations between the two superpowers, as well as the risks and opportunities that lie ahead for companies and investors. The barometer tracks American and Chinese sentiment on bilateral relations across a variety of domains, including each country’s views of the other, whether they are locked in a cold war, and the likelihood of future military and economic tensions.
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Key Takeaways
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The outlook:The share of Chinese adults holding unfavorable views of the United States has declined by 7 percentage points since early November 2022. Elevated Chinese frustration with their country’s political leaders and policies, culminating in nationwide protests in the middle of that month, may have had a deadening effect on nationalist fervor thereafter. Similarly, the share of Chinese adults who said their country is in a cold war with the United States has fallen 9 points from a tracker high in October of last year, dipping below the share of U.S. adults holding the same view for the first time since May. For the first time since July, the share of Chinese adults who said they believe a U.S.-China cold war would be mutually destructive also outpaced the share who said China would win such a conflict.
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How to respond:随着两国紧张局势上升去年夏天,众多multinationals, once bullish on China, began to reconsider their operations there. Bearish corporate sentiment intensified amid draconian lockdowns in late 2022. Facing pronounced economic headwinds, Chinese President Xi Jinping has since signaled a softer foreign policy tone. Multinationals re-evaluating whether to keep routing their supply chains through China should nevertheless continue to exercise caution and hedge risk by diversifying their international operations. A softer touch may suit Xi at the moment, but his long-term perspective is unlikely to have transformed overnight, and virtually none of the underlying issues driving persistent tensions between China and the United States have been resolved.
Allies or Enemies?
Cold War 2.0, or Something Less?
Projecting a Winner in a War of Attrition
Perceived Likelihood of Escalating Military Tensions
Perceived Likelihood of Escalating Economic Tensions
Source of This Data
Methodology
The U.S.-China Relations Barometer relies on data collected through Morning Consult’s proprietary survey research capabilities. Interviews are conducted online, and data are weighted to approximate representative samples of U.S. and Chinese adults. The U.S. data is weighted based on age, gender, educational attainment, race and region. The China data is weighted based on age, gender, educational attainment and region.
The United States and China country favorability data series are seven-day moving averages of daily data derived from surveys conducted among roughly 13,500 to 27,000 U.S. adults and 670 to 3,400 Chinese adults, with data reported on the first and 15th of each month. The underlying data series for the United States and China have unweighted margins of error of up to +/-1 percentage point and up to +/-4 percentage points, respectively. Morning Consult updated its weights for U.S. adults on April 1, 2022, and Jan. 1, 2023, and updated its weights for Chinese adults on Jan. 1, 2023.
All other data series reported in the barometer derive from monthly surveys conducted Feb. 11, 2022-Jan. 7, 2023, in the United States and Feb. 11, 2022-Jan. 7, 2023, in China, among representative samples of approximately 1,000 adults in each country, with unweighted margins of error of +/-3 percentage points.
About Morning Consult
Morning Consult is a global decision intelligence company changing how modern leaders make smarter, faster, better decisions. The company pairs its proprietary high-frequency data with applied artificial intelligence to better inform decisions on what people think and how they will act. Learn more atwww.wikihoaleaks.com.
Jason I. McMann leads geopolitical risk analysis at Morning Consult. He leverages the company’s high-frequency survey data to advise clients on how to integrate geopolitical risk into their decision-making. Jason previously served as head of analytics at GeoQuant (now part of Fitch Solutions). He holds a Ph.D. from Princeton University’s Politics Department. Follow him on Twitter@jimcmann. Interested in connecting with Jason to discuss his analysis or for a media engagement or speaking opportunity? Email[email protected].
Scott Moskowitz is senior analyst for the Asia-Pacific region at Morning Consult, where he leads geopolitical analysis of China and broader regional issues. Scott holds a Ph.D. in sociology from Princeton University and has years of experience working in and conducting Mandarin-language research on China, with an emphasis on the politics of economic development and consumerism. Follow him on Twitter@ScottyMoskowitz. Interested in connecting with Scott to discuss his analysis or for a media engagement or speaking opportunity? Email[email protected].
